Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.9 | 3.6% | 47 | 0.41% | 67 | 0.58% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 18.1 | 15.6% | 204 | 1.5% | 254 | 1.87% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 28.7 | 24% | 314 | 1.5% | 418 | 2% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 13.6 | 15.4% | 202 | 1.48% | 288 | 2.12% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 12.7 | 12.6% | 165 | 1.58% | 225 | 2.15% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 11.7 | 12.1% | 159 | 1.27% | 220 | 1.75% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 8.4 | 8.5% | 112 | 0.97% | 145 | 1.26% |
| 70+ | 5 | 7.0 | 8.2% | 107 | 1.02% | 164 | 1.57% |
| All ages | 84 | 104.1 | 100% | 1310 | 1.25% | 1781 | 1.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.4 | 2.3% | 27 | 0.35% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 8.4 | 7.4% | 87 | 1.04% | 108 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 16.1 | 15.4% | 182 | 2.56% | 224 | 3.15% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 20.3 | 19.5% | 230 | 2.74% | 300 | 3.57% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 19.9 | 19.4% | 228 | 2.94% | 290 | 3.74% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 15.3 | 16.5% | 194 | 2% | 239 | 2.46% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 12.9 | 12.5% | 147 | 1.75% | 187 | 2.22% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.3 | 7% | 83 | 1.17% | 111 | 1.56% |
| All ages | 80 | 103.6 | 100% | 1178 | 1.82% | 1499 | 2.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.4 | 4.4% | 40 | 0.74% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 7.6 | 10.2% | 92 | 1.69% | 112 | 2.06% |
| 20-29 | 46 | 14.4 | 16.2% | 146 | 3.23% | 171 | 3.78% |
| 30-39 | 50 | 13.1 | 15.6% | 141 | 2.6% | 170 | 3.13% |
| 40-49 | 25 | 10.0 | 13% | 117 | 2.35% | 156 | 3.13% |
| 50-59 | 44 | 14.3 | 16.1% | 145 | 2.14% | 179 | 2.64% |
| 60-69 | 23 | 12.3 | 13.6% | 123 | 1.94% | 149 | 2.35% |
| 70+ | 7 | 10.6 | 11% | 99 | 1.56% | 133 | 2.1% |
| All ages | 213 | 85.7 | 100% | 903 | 2% | 1116 | 2.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.4 | 2.6% | 34 | 0.29% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 13.6 | 11.9% | 156 | 0.94% | 190 | 1.15% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 25.4 | 21.7% | 285 | 1.34% | 350 | 1.64% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 17.6 | 13.8% | 182 | 1.34% | 242 | 1.78% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 16.0 | 12.9% | 170 | 1.25% | 228 | 1.68% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 19.9 | 16.6% | 218 | 1.54% | 283 | 1.99% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 13.3 | 11.8% | 155 | 1.09% | 196 | 1.38% |
| 70+ | 3 | 10.1 | 8.8% | 116 | 0.89% | 144 | 1.11% |
| All ages | 42 | 119.3 | 100% | 1316 | 1.11% | 1676 | 1.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 20.7 | 5% | 218 | 0.36% | 287 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 80 | 72.1 | 16.6% | 728 | 1.02% | 872 | 1.23% |
| 20-29 | 80 | 109.3 | 24.5% | 1076 | 1.04% | 1338 | 1.29% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 68.4 | 15.7% | 690 | 0.9% | 865 | 1.13% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 57.3 | 13.6% | 598 | 0.91% | 753 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 49.1 | 10.9% | 478 | 0.73% | 610 | 0.93% |
| 60-69 | 18 | 29.9 | 6.5% | 284 | 0.52% | 381 | 0.7% |
| 70+ | 5 | 32.3 | 7.1% | 313 | 0.64% | 403 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 293 | 439.1 | 100% | 4385 | 0.8% | 5509 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 197 | 244.3 | 3.9% | 2435 | 0.38% | 3146 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 688 | 739.7 | 11.6% | 7222 | 0.95% | 9160 | 1.21% |
| 20-29 | 873 | 1098.7 | 17.8% | 11114 | 1.47% | 14394 | 1.9% |
| 30-39 | 805 | 937.9 | 15.5% | 9656 | 1.28% | 12661 | 1.67% |
| 40-49 | 735 | 878.3 | 14.6% | 9081 | 1.3% | 11856 | 1.7% |
| 50-59 | 883 | 949.7 | 15.6% | 9698 | 1.19% | 12644 | 1.55% |
| 60-69 | 490 | 696.6 | 11.2% | 6980 | 0.92% | 9014 | 1.19% |
| 70+ | 475 | 623.6 | 9.8% | 6123 | 0.96% | 8066 | 1.26% |
| All ages | 5146 | 6168.7 | 100% | 62309 | 1.07% | 80941 | 1.39% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170.2 | 186.7 | 199.7 | 104.1 | 111.9 | 30.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231.8 | 103.6 | 78.1 | 43.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246.7 | 85.7 | 47.3 | 45.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141.8 | 114.8 | 164.5 | 119.3 | 79 | 28.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.8 | 122.7 | 128.8 | 439.1 | 315.4 | 27.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 121 | 190.2 | 6168.7 | 4536.6 | 34.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 8.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-05 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2537"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges